Idol Chatter

As we hurl towards what is admittedly an historic ignaural ceremony next week one has to step back and ponder what is most important to us as a country.  Now before you think I’m going to wax philosophically on how Obama is our first black president take stock of what is actually getting more air time on the major networks.  Is it what President Obama will say or is it what Michelle will wear?

I wish I were more surprised to hear the incessant drone about what color, what style and how much the 1st Lady will spend on her gown.  But I’m not.  It is testiment to our shallowness as a nation.  Or maybe it’s our national attention deficit disorder that has us barely deal with more meaty subjects (unless we can spin them as some sort of impending disaster).  In any event, we’ll hear more about Michelle’s dress, how many balls the President and 1st Lady attend and what they ate than we’ll spend analyzing any substance that may be contained in the President’s speech.

Oh well…

I hear the smart money is on a cream or other natural colored dress but I’m betting on red.  Now will it be a plunging neckline or bare back…

Earlier this week I listened to President elect Obama address congress to move swiftly to put together and a approve a new economic recovery package.  Now that was to be expected but as I’m listening to the President elect I’m wonder who is this guy?

The ‘new’ Obama seems to have lost his optimistic outlook entirely.  This new guy likes to talk about how we are at the edge of an economic abyss from which there may be no recovery.  No recovery that is, unless congress approves his package.

The thing is that a package of incentives cannot do anything for the next 3 months and very little for the first half of the new year.  More people will get laid off which will be painful.  The housing market will not come back to life  anytime soon.  The big three auto dealers will be back in Washington DC shortly asking for a lot more money to survive.

However, what Obama won’t acknowledge is that there will be recovery without his package.  And whether the economic recession we are in gets any worse or last any longer without it is debatable.  What I do know (and I think the President elect does too) is that his job creation plans that have to do with infrastructure projects (yes folks we are talking about laying concrete for roads and bridges) won’t do anything for a single mother of 4 who gets laid off of her adminstrative job.  I won’t do anything for the 48 year old father of 2 in college who can no longer make any money being a real estate agent.  It just can’t help the hundreds of thousands of folks who are not physically capable of doing that labor.

So the bad news is that much of what gets included in this stimulus/recovery bill just won’t help us out and will just raise the deficit further.  We are in for a grim year this year.

But we will recover because we are a huge economic force.  Once the contraction stops – and it will – spending will slowly come back.  And that will lead to job growth.  We need to focus on just how vast this country is and how rich it is with not only natural resources but with a people who will raise to the occasion.  Americans do not need a hand out.  This country has survived worse and come back the stronger for it.

Mortgage rates fell again this week prompting the usual segments on the news shows that the prudent investor should refinance now for savings.  And while this is, on the surface, sound advice, what it overlooks is whether there is still enough equity in the home to make a refinance approval likely.

In some regions of the country, home values have dropped by more than 20%.  This drop may cause some folks to go upside down in their mortgage owing as much or more than the home is worth.  Even with a small positive equity, many home owners could get turned down for refinancing unless they can afford to pay a sizable payment to increase their equity position in the home.

So an opportunity for a few folks but nothing that will help the rank and file who are, in some cases, hanging by a thread financially and braceing for more layoffs in the post holiday economy.